How often are fair value gaps filled?
A pilot count of what price did to the gaps in this site's archive: how many were touched, how many were filled, and how soon.
Summary
In 19 archived 12-hour sessions of 15-minute candles, formed 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30, the three-candle rule found 139 fair value gaps. Within 4 candles of forming, 94 of 132 (71%) were touched and 71 of 132 (54%) were filled. Within 8 candles, 92 of 119 (77%) were touched and 75 of 119 (63%) were filled. The median time from forming to the first touch was 15 min. This is a pilot on a small sample and one timeframe.
Method
Gaps are found with one rule on real 15-minute candles. Take three candles in a row and compare the wick of the first with the wick of the third. A bullish gap exists when the low of the third is above the high of the first. A bearish gap exists when the high of the third is below the low of the first. The comparison is strict, so touching is not a gap, and there is no minimum size. A gap exists only once the third candle has closed.
A gap is "touched" when a later candle first trades back into its range, and "filled" when a later candle first trades through its far edge. Both are counts of what price did to a gap on the candles in the archive.
Two windows are used: 4 candles and 8 candles after the gap formed. A gap enters a window's count only if it has been watched for at least that many candles, so a young gap is never counted as a miss. Gaps are grouped by market, and by the session in which the third candle closed (UTC).
Any group with fewer than 5 gaps is not shown. Each figure prints its sample size (n) and the dates of the gaps it rests on.
The full definitions are on the methodology page.
Results by market
| Market | Gaps | Not filled by session end | Size in pips: median (10th to 90th) | Touched within 4 candles | Filled within 4 candles | Touched within 8 candles | Filled within 8 candles | Median time to first touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets | 139n 139 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 32 of 139 (23%)n 139 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 2.6 (0.4 to 15.7)n 139 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 94 of 132 (71%)n 132 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 71 of 132 (54%)n 132 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 92 of 119 (77%)n 119 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 75 of 119 (63%)n 119 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 15 minn 116 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 |
| AUDUSD | 17n 17 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 4 of 17 (24%)n 17 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 1.5 (0.5 to 4.3)n 17 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 13 of 15 (87%)n 15 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 10 of 15 (67%)n 15 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 12 of 14 (86%)n 14 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 9 of 14 (64%)n 14 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 | 15 minn 15 · 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30 |
| EURUSD | 31n 31 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 7 of 31 (23%)n 31 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 2.3 (0.4 to 5.1)n 31 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 24 of 30 (80%)n 30 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 16 of 30 (53%)n 30 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 21 of 25 (84%)n 25 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 16 of 25 (64%)n 25 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 | 15 minn 26 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-30 |
| GBPUSD | 18n 18 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 3 of 18 (17%)n 18 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 1.6 (0.7 to 4.3)n 18 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 12 of 17 (71%)n 17 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 9 of 17 (53%)n 17 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 11 of 14 (79%)n 14 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 9 of 14 (64%)n 14 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 | 15 minn 17 · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-23 |
| NZDUSD | 15n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 2 of 15 (13%)n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 1.3 (0.1 to 3.2)n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 10 of 15 (67%)n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 7 of 15 (47%)n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 10 of 13 (77%)n 13 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 9 of 13 (69%)n 13 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 | 15 minn 13 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-02 |
| USDCAD | 15n 15 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 2 of 15 (13%)n 15 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 1.1 (0.2 to 6.7)n 15 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 9 of 14 (64%)n 14 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 9 of 14 (64%)n 14 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 9 of 14 (64%)n 14 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 9 of 14 (64%)n 14 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | 15 minn 13 · 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 |
| USDCHF | 6n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 1 of 6 (17%)n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 2 (0.7 to 5.6)n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 5 of 6 (83%)n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 4 of 6 (67%)n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 5 of 6 (83%)n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 5 of 6 (83%)n 6 · 2026-10-02 | 30 minn 5 · 2026-10-02 |
| USDJPY | 12n 12 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 3 of 12 (25%)n 12 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 6 (1.1 to 18.5)n 12 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 6 of 12 (50%)n 12 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 4 of 12 (33%)n 12 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 8 of 11 (73%)n 11 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 6 of 11 (55%)n 11 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 1 hn 9 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 25n 25 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 10 of 25 (40%)n 25 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 15.5 (6.8 to 63.3)n 25 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 15 of 23 (65%)n 23 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 12 of 23 (52%)n 23 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 16 of 22 (73%)n 22 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 12 of 22 (55%)n 22 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 | 15 minn 18 · 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-30 |
Results by session
The session is the one in which the gap's third candle closed (UTC).
| Session | Gaps | Not filled by session end | Size in pips: median (10th to 90th) | Touched within 4 candles | Filled within 4 candles | Touched within 8 candles | Filled within 8 candles | Median time to first touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 22n 22 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-30 | 10 of 22 (45%)n 22 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-30 | 2.3 (0.4 to 16.3)n 22 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-30 | 12 of 15 (80%)n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-30 | 7 of 15 (47%)n 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-30 | n 2, under 5: not shown | n 2, under 5: not shown | 15 minn 15 · 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-30 |
| London/New York overlap | 52n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 16 of 52 (31%)n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 3.3 (0.4 to 29.4)n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 35 of 52 (67%)n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 27 of 52 (52%)n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 37 of 52 (71%)n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 31 of 52 (60%)n 52 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 15 minn 39 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 |
| London | 65n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 6 of 65 (9%)n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 2.2 (0.4 to 11.6)n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 47 of 65 (72%)n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 37 of 65 (57%)n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 54 of 65 (83%)n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 44 of 65 (68%)n 65 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | 15 minn 62 · 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 |
Limits
- The sample is small: 139 gaps. A different set of sessions would give different numbers, and differences between markets or sessions in the tables below are not established by it.
- Only one timeframe is covered, 15 minutes, so nothing here compares timeframes.
- The archive spans 19 sessions, formed 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30: about six weeks. It says nothing about other periods or market conditions.
- Each archived session is cut to 12 hours (06:00 to 18:00 UTC). A gap that forms late in a session is watched for fewer candles, and a fill that would come after the cut cannot be observed. The share filled by session end is therefore a lower bound on the share filled eventually.
- These are counts of what price did to gaps. They say nothing about any trade, and nothing here is advice.
How to cite
Michael H. (2026). How often are fair value gaps filled? A pilot study of 139 gaps on 15-minute candles, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30. fairvaluegaps.com/study/how-often-are-fair-value-gaps-filled/, data as of 2026-10-30 18:00 UTC.